Election impact? Market holding steady so far…

2026 housing market shows little sign of an election slowdown

Talk of an "election slowdown" in the housing market comes up in almost every election year. It is often treated as a given, but the data for 2026 so far suggests the market is likely to remain reasonably steady and largely shrug off the election.

Past elections show no consistent housing market pattern

To test for an election effect, we compared sales activity in the election quarter ("E") and the prior quarter ("E-1") against the same quarters in the year before and after. Past cycles show no consistent pattern. Some years saw no impact, such as 2020 and 2023, while others saw a noticeable slowdown, such as 2014 and 2017 when housing affordability was a prominent campaign issue.

The data for 2026 so far points to a minor impact

Sales activity in the first half of the year was broadly comparable with 2025, even despite the market seeing hesitation earlier in the year due to the Middle East conflict and oil shock. Sales activity for July and August was a bit softer, although at the same time we have seen some very highly contested auctions.

Housing affordability largely absent from election campaign

Politically, housing affordability has been largely absent from this year's campaigning, with debate focused instead on cost of living, economic management and approach to taxation.

Tax policy remains the key housing market issue

Tax policy has the clearest overlap with the housing market, though even here debate has largely steered clear of the family home. Most proposals for change are isolated to parts of the market like rental housing. That said, there is reason to be sceptical of changes, having seen interest deductibility removed by one government and then reinstated by the next government.

Housing market expected to remain steady through election

On the evidence so far, the market looks set to hold reasonably steady through the election and there is little reason to alter plans. This year's election effect is likely to be subtle and set alongside other factors like interest rate movements. Rather than trying to time around it, larger gains will be had by focusing on the things that make a bigger difference: effective marketing, smart pricing strategy, and dedicated salespeople.